Posts Tagged ‘Larry Sabato’

Was the 2008 Presidential Election a sign of a long term political realignment? Larry Sabato’s thinks so elaborating in his new book, The Year of Obama.

Politico offers a summary:

“The big idea of this book is that 2008 looks to be a realigning election — a very rare event in American history. The previous three were 1896, 1932, and 1980. Translation: The Democratic majority is going to last for a while. There have been 38 presidential elections since 1860, and Obama received the 6th highest share of the vote for a Democrat. Only FDR (four times) and LBJ (once) exceeded Obama’s percentage. There were three giant demographic shifts that powered this:

“— The young broke more than 2-1 Democratic, and it was an intense preference unlikely to fade quickly. As this group ages and replaces older voters, Democrats will benefit even more since this group’s turnout will go up.

“— The proportion of minority voters (black, Hispanic, and Asian) shot up and is likely to climb consistently every four years (mainly because of Hispanics). Democrats get about three-quarters of the votes of minorities, taken as a collective group.

“— Americans with post-graduate educations have begun to move firmly to the Democrats, not just because of Bush and the economy but also because of the GOP’s conservative stance on social issues (abortion, gay rights, etc.)

If Sabato’s analysis holds steadfast, and I do think it will, then perhaps it’s time to rethink the sixties, often argued as a decade that solidified the defeat of the left. The issues of the sixties are still be debated today (racism, sexism, homophobia, peace, environmental efficiency) but over the last four decades, the country has moved to the left on all of those issues. As much as the Right insists that we remain a “center-right” country, I think we’re arriving at a point where that no longer proves true- left has become mainstream, and President Obama has helped this dynamic along. He’s been able to insert a sensibility into political discourse that makes progressive principles, make sense. Now a realignment isn’t guaranteed, I’ve heard a number of young people in particular refer to themselves as “Obama Democrats”- meaning that they align with the individual and not necessarily the party. However if the GOP, well, keeps doing what they’re doing (pretending that nothing has changed), and if more Conservative Dems can refrain from taking conservative positions simply to prove that they’re independent minded (I’m looking at you Bayh) then I think we’re bound to see some really interesting developments over the next 10 years.