Sara Haile-Mariam

My latest on Huffpost- on young people, policy, and the midterms. Excerpt below:

To that end, passing loan reform gives democrats the ammunition they need to re-engage young voters. Let’s be clear; young people did not simply vote for Barack Obama but for the principles that he spoke of and the policies that he promised. Among them, they voted to make college more affordable. A recent study released by Harvard University’s Institute of Politics speaks of their frustration and reveals that 45% of the 18-29 year olds polled “are concerned about their ability to stay in college given the state of the economy.” Passing loan reform indicates that democrats hear them and that they’re doing something about it.

A really insightful take from John Halpin and Ruy Teixeira of The American Prospect.

As the country is evolving, so are the American people’s views on what government can and should do. Start with the likely diminution in the culture wars that have bedeviled American politics for so long. While cultural disagreements remain, their political influence is being undermined by the rise of the millennial generation, increasing religious and family diversity, and the decline of the culturally conservative white working class. Culture-war issues such as abortion and gay marriage, which so conspicuously failed to move many voters in the last couple of elections, will lose even more force in years to come.

Instead, we are likely to see more attention paid to health care, energy, and education–issues Americans care about and in which government has a positive role to play. The public holds distinctly progressive views in each of these areas, supporting health care for all, a transition to clean energy, and building a 21st-century education system, including a major infusion of resources to improve K-12 education and college access. The public’s commitment to these progressive goals is only likely to intensify, since rising demographic groups tend to be especially supportive.

I’ll only add that if this study proves true- and the electorate makes decisions based on the long term policy implications that a candidate espouses, as opposed to a candidate’s ability to politically meander controversial wedge issues, then we’re likely to see a smarter electorate emerge in the decades to come. Blogs and facebook and twitter enable candidates and even elected officials to engage in off the cuff, unscripted conversations with their constituents. The benefit of this is that it’s conducive to education and accountability. Granted, this assumes that our representatives want to educate the masses (Claire McClaskil for instance, is extremely thoughtful on her twitter page taking time to respond to specific policy questions that get tweeted her way).

The point is that if we can remove some of those stigmas that tend to frame political debate (ie: Pro-life, Pro-Business) to get down to the specifics, (ie: What are you going to do for students strapped down by college loans, what are you going to do for small businesses who can’t meet payroll)- then we’re likely to see a more complicated debate, which is something I’m not entirely sure the Right is prepared for.

Was the 2008 Presidential Election a sign of a long term political realignment? Larry Sabato’s thinks so elaborating in his new book, The Year of Obama.

Politico offers a summary:

“The big idea of this book is that 2008 looks to be a realigning election — a very rare event in American history. The previous three were 1896, 1932, and 1980. Translation: The Democratic majority is going to last for a while. There have been 38 presidential elections since 1860, and Obama received the 6th highest share of the vote for a Democrat. Only FDR (four times) and LBJ (once) exceeded Obama’s percentage. There were three giant demographic shifts that powered this:

“— The young broke more than 2-1 Democratic, and it was an intense preference unlikely to fade quickly. As this group ages and replaces older voters, Democrats will benefit even more since this group’s turnout will go up.

“— The proportion of minority voters (black, Hispanic, and Asian) shot up and is likely to climb consistently every four years (mainly because of Hispanics). Democrats get about three-quarters of the votes of minorities, taken as a collective group.

“— Americans with post-graduate educations have begun to move firmly to the Democrats, not just because of Bush and the economy but also because of the GOP’s conservative stance on social issues (abortion, gay rights, etc.)

If Sabato’s analysis holds steadfast, and I do think it will, then perhaps it’s time to rethink the sixties, often argued as a decade that solidified the defeat of the left. The issues of the sixties are still be debated today (racism, sexism, homophobia, peace, environmental efficiency) but over the last four decades, the country has moved to the left on all of those issues. As much as the Right insists that we remain a “center-right” country, I think we’re arriving at a point where that no longer proves true- left has become mainstream, and President Obama has helped this dynamic along. He’s been able to insert a sensibility into political discourse that makes progressive principles, make sense. Now a realignment isn’t guaranteed, I’ve heard a number of young people in particular refer to themselves as “Obama Democrats”- meaning that they align with the individual and not necessarily the party. However if the GOP, well, keeps doing what they’re doing (pretending that nothing has changed), and if more Conservative Dems can refrain from taking conservative positions simply to prove that they’re independent minded (I’m looking at you Bayh) then I think we’re bound to see some really interesting developments over the next 10 years.